EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Research objectives:

The major goals of this three-year project are:

1. the generation of designed alternative future scenarios that explore a range of human land use and management choices for watersheds in the cornbelt region of the US
2. development and calibration of models to evaluate the alternative scenarios and compare potential impacts of future change on water quality, biodiversity, and human perceptions of the landscape
3. evaluation of the scenarios using models developed and/or calibrated for these watersheds
4. summarization of these results in an integrated assessment

In this, our first year, our primary goals have been the generation of three alternative future scenarios in an expert design process led by Joan Nassauer of the University of Michigan; the development and calibration of models for evaluation and comparison of the alternative future scenarios; acquisition of data to parameterize models; and development of the collaborative process among investigators from different disciplines.

Progress to date

Progress is on schedule. Draft scenario designs have been reviewed by all teams, and final versions of all three scenarios will be completed by the end of January. We estimate that the first set of scenarios will be available in digital coverages for modeling at the end of February. Model development and calibration efforts are proceeding on schedule, and a July all-hands meeting is planned for the results of the first set of modeling runs.

The watershed design process used to develop the scenarios is iterative, field-based, and expert- informed. To date, this process has led to some important design innovations:

1. Alternative watershed designs have been formulated and communicated as decision making rules, rather than only spatial patterns, to allow the designs to be explicitly interpreted in modeling and policy development.
2. Use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has been included as a part of the design process, rather than only a medium for modeling.
3. Rather than projections or broad design goals, useful scientific questions and strategy for informing policy explicitly underpin the scenario concepts.
4. Landscape matrix and network patterns for each of the design scenarios can be disaggregated to allow different matrix and network configurations to be "mixed and matched" for further investigation in modeling.
5. New agricultural practices to increase ecological health of agroecosystems have been designed.

The visioning workshop in Ames, Iowa ( July 1997) provided input for scenario design from experts of each discipline on the project (water quality, vertebrate biodiversity, plant biodiversity, wetland restoration and biodiversity, agronomy, economics, decision-making) as well as outside invitees with expertise in agricultural policy, hydrogeology, agricultural extension. In addition to providing the expert information needed by the Landscape Architecture team for generating the scenario designs, the workshop provided an opportunity for all involved in the project to visit the study watersheds and work intensively together for four days. On multi-disciplinary projects, the building of a common vocabulary and development of mutual respect and understanding among collaborators from different disciplines is essential. The workshop was an excellent opportunity to begin this process.

Data base construction, model development, and model calibration have also been important activities of each modeling team this year. Acquisition and compilation of the of the spatial data (soils, topography, hydrography) into complete coverages for each watershed and assembling of species/ land cover matrices for use in the biodiversity modeling is nearly complete and will undergo internal review this spring. The experimental work on effects of nutrients and invasive exotic species on wetland plants in restoration mesocosms is well underway, with a successful field season for seed collection and the first greenhouse experiment set up for its initial run.

Acquisition of information on land values and soil productivity will enable us to develop relative estimates of the economic impacts of alternative future landscape change, and aid in the development of the integrated assessment of the alternative future scenarios.

Presentations/publications

Currently, two masters theses and one Ph.D. dissertation drawing on this work are underway. One paper has been accepted for presentation to the 7th International Symposium on Society and Resource Management, University of Missouri, May 1998 (Musumecci, Corry, and Nassauer). Two poster abstracts (Freemark et al. and Santelmann et al.) have been accepted for presentation at the US International Association of Landscape Ecologists meetings in Lansing, Michigan (March 17-20)

Future activities

In 1998, the three alternative future scenarios developed in the design process, which give highest priority to agricultural production, biodiversity, and water quality respectively, will be used along with two benchmarks (1994 condition and pre- settlement landcover) as input to the GIS-based models which explore the impact of land use and management choices on water quality and biodiversity. Model runs will be discussed and initial outputs evaluated at an all-hands meeting in Corvallis, OR in July of 1998.